Horse Racing Results 4 March 2024

The third and fifth from the Betfair finished 1-2 in the Imperial Cup at the weekend so that form looks solid. In between times, Iberico Lord was well beaten at Ascot and perhaps it was a combination of the slower pace and faster turf that did for him. It should be at least a little bit softer here but whether there’s much pace in the race remains to be seen. Whilst he’s obviously progressive, he’s got about a stone and a half to find on official ratings if the favourite runs to within a pound or three of his mark. He’d previously been only 1 1/2 lengths behind Stay Away Fay on softer ground at Sandown where he travelled strongly through the race before being continously hampered by a loose horse around the 3rd last fence. He still cruised upside the eventual winner as the pair jumped the last and kept on nicely up the run in but wasn’t quite able to keep a straight line and keep tabs with Stay Away Fay in the last 100 yards.

Chase A Fortune

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Ayr racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Ayr Gold Cup. If you are looking to place a bet on this race well in advance of the actual running, then there may be an ante-post market available for you to place your bet. If you are unfamiliar with this type of betting then head over to the OLBG Betting School and read our Ante-Post Horse Racing article which explains how ante-post betting works. Created in 2007, this class two handicap is run over a trip of six furlongs at Doncaster Racecourse and is open to runners who are aged three or older.

Kempton Park Horse Racing Trends (ITV)

Recent form shows how well they’ve been running, Last Run is the number of days since their last outing and the forecast is the forecast decimal odds according to Timeform. Bolts Up Daily As with any form of betting, there are always risks involved. While Free Horse Racing Tips can increase your chances of winning, there is no guarantee of success.

Horse racing tips: 11-1 shot will relish the soft ground and can bolt up at Catterick

On official ratings, Gaillard du Mesnil is clear of his field and he obviously has the talent to win; but his inability to put races to bed, even if they have been higher level races, has to be a worry at the price. Against him, there is a clutch of horses separated by only a few pounds on ratings, and it will be the one that adapts best to this somewhat unique test who is the each way bet. That might be the ultra-consistent Mister Coffey, who has placed Festival form to his name. I’ve backed loads of them, which is ridiculous, because I haven’t got a clue who wins.

London Racing Club Cheltenham Preview Night Notes

The Coral-Eclipse looks a one-way Enable fest now that Lord North is out of the race so I’m going elsewhere on the Sandown card on Sunday. O’Brien’s exciting colt produced a massive performance in the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot, flying home with a withering late run to topple some well-regarded prospects. And with Enable making her long-awaited return in the Coral-Eclipse on Sunday, the stage is set for a sporting showdown to savour. He has shown his best here and went close over course and distance last time out.

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This season, battle lines are drawn between Britain and Ireland and, as with the Champion Hurdle two races later, team captains are Messrs Henderson and Mullins. Willie also has Zarak The Brave, who is at least vaguely credible for the frame at a price. His form this season is 1P1, wins in the Galway Hurdle (off 145 in a field of 19 on goodish ground) and a Naas Grade 3 in a small field on soft sandwiching a flunk when he was found to have been post-race clinically abnormal. I’m not entirely sure what that means but perhaps it was a fibrillating heart; conjecture aside, if he can bring his A game he is one of the few within a stone of State Man on ratings. Although they’ve been getting closer in recent times (2nd and 4th last year), the Irish don’t have a great overall record in the Ultima (0/38 since 2007) and you have to go back to 2006 and Tony Martin’s Dun Doire to find their last winner.

Royale Pagaille – National Hunt Chase – 5/2 bet365 (NRNB, BOG)

Mistakes with his fencing likely contributed to him dropping out of contention from before three out, and he was well beaten when unshipping Paul Townend at the last. If you liked Ballyburn for this, his representative is the Henry de Bromhead-trained Slade Steel, who was third and second to the Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle favourite in a bumper and a Grade 1 novice hurdle respectively. Henry is perhaps the best target trainer of all in recent Festivals, his hit rate at the last five being a scarcely believable one in seven. Foxy Jacks has run cross country here three times and failed to get round twice, though he did win on the other occasion! That was in the November handicap last year in which the heavyweights Delta Work and Galvin both went missing, presumed not off.

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The overall figures now stand at 8/467 (1.71% SR, A/E 0.58) since 2008. Ignoring the Albert Bartlett, horses priced 16/1+ in novice Grade 1’s are now 3/327 (0.92% SR, -251 at SP) since 2008. Even allowing a little latitude in the ‘potato race’, the four rags came from a total population of 336 horses sent off greater than 16/1. All of the above verbosity is by way of suggesting that Shishkin will probably win assuming he turns up in one piece (never a given). But a top priced 8/11, whilst still very far from offensive in value terms, is unexciting for those of us with limited elevens to risk in the pursuit of eights.

• Most of his best form is on a sounder surface, as when fourth in the Gold Cup two years ago; but he’s raced mainly on softer recently.
• A year later, last year, and Honeysuckle again won the Champion Hurdle with Epatante her nearest pursuer on this occasion.
• Max 50 spins each day at 10p per spin for 4 consecutive days.
• Some of Britain’s first recorded race meetings were held during the reign of Henry II.
• Brought down on fencing debut, that inauspicious introduction has long been forgotten as he has subsequently strung four straight chase wins together, three of them in Graded company, one a Grade 1.

Grand National 2023 sweepstake: Download and print off MailOnline’s essential kit for the year’s biggest race

I’m not keen on backing Appreciate It at around 6/4 in the ‘without’ market either, nor the untested in Grade 1 or on fast ground Teahupoo, or any of his five-year-old contemporaries. No, if I was having a swipe right now, it might be Not So Sleepy without Honeysuckle at 33/1+ each way. He was 5th last year at 125/1 outright, and has dead heated with Epatante in the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth this season. It looks like this year’s Champion Hurdle may be run at an even to quick tempo, with both Appreciate It and Teahupoo generally going forward. However, both took a lead on their most recent starts so perhaps we’ll be erring towards just an even gallop, in which case all should be able to run their races. I also didn’t mention Tommy’s Oscar in that earlier preview, Mrs Ann Hamilton’s flag bearer well worthy of the name check having waltzed away with the Haydock Champion Hurdle trial shortly after publication.

Breeders’ Cup 2024: Three European raiders form a 68/1 treble on Friday

Shishkin is now unbeaten in seven completed starts, having fallen on his hurdling debut. The main lesson of history is “don’t believe the hype”, a message that resonates far beyond Festival jollies but which was poignantly reprised twelve months ago when, of the six favourites sent off at 5/4 or shorter, five were beaten. It works as an index where, like IV, 1.00 is a par figure and better or worse than 1.00 is a degree of good or bad respectively. It’s calculation requires a little unpacking and, rather than do that here, you’re encouraged to look at this racing metrics article where I explain and exemplify each of IV, A/E and PRB in more detail. The key here is that north of 1.00 is good, south of 1.00 not so much. Happily, geegeez.co.uk publishes a few metrics that cut through the thorny thicket of quantifying these data, namely Impact Value, Percentage of Rivals Beaten, and Actual vs Expected.

Patrick Mullins

So the Irish are sending more runners than they did more than a decade ago, and are winning on average more often. LH – Worried about Mighty Potter potentially not handling the travel/prelims again after last year. Could be different story this time but he has to overcome that and is very short in the betting considering. Banbridge is more straightforward and Balco Coastal is interesting at a bigger price, too.

• If you are unaware of what trends and statistics are, how they can be used etc then head over to the OLBG Betting School and read this Stats And Trends article which will make everything much clearer.
• We start with the Gold Cup, which has had more headlines recently for the non-runners rather than those taking part.
• Slade Steel has a top trainer and top form behind Ballyburn (who was a strong favourite for this before defecting to the Gallagher).
• All of the last 14 winners had raced 2-5 times over fences.
• Saint Roi is interesting – “jockey admitted falling off” last time.
• The selection has no room for error off top-weight, but no one rides the straight course at Ascot better than Spencer.
• El Fabiolo “occasionally quite clumsy”, but agree the Irish Arkle is the best form on show so far.
• The British handicapper seems not to be on the same page with his European counterparts, ranking Irish form more highly and French form lower.

• Best of the (limited) British defence is probably Mister Coffey, a perma-bridesmaid trained by Nicky Henderson.
• We’ve gone through all FIVE cards on Tuesday so here’s what we’re backing.
• Racing Post Members’ ClubRacing Post Members’ Club is the ultimate community for racing fans and punters, providing award-winning journalism, expert insight, comment and opinion, and tools designed to give you an edge.
• It is worth noting that five-year-olds have failed to win since their allowance was removed, though some of the fancied ones (Allmankind, Saint Calvados) have been given, erm, interesting rides from the front.
• They are living, breathing animals that we cherish and love.
• Let’s say that we wish to place a bet on the Cheltenham Gold Cup through William Hill horse racing.
• But she’s the reigning champ in this race and the drying ground will make the two mile Champion more of a speed test than this two and a half mile contest.
• Churchstonewarrior could be a playable alternative – going slower could suit him.

The hood was left off Alcala on latest start, when he was well beaten before falling two out. The headgear returns today but he is a very risky proposition. A final word on the thrilling exhibition by Un De Sceaux yesterday which crowned an outstanding day for Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh. Many had been premature in casting doubts over the Mullins yard and the early prices on offer for Un De Sceaux were value –  which we took full advantage of.

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The way he jumped/travelled that day marked him down as one who will be well served by the demands of this race. CAPADANO (each-way) has had a better prep this season and can improve on last year’s showing in the Grand National. Get ready to listen to a friend of a friend tell you a 50/1 shot will bolt up and after all of your research, your Granny backs the winner because she liked the jockey’s colours. Tiger Roll’s 2019 Aintree heroics in partnership with Russell was the first time a horse had won back-to-back renewals since Red Rum in the 1970s. “He’s been bumping into some good horses and he’s a tough old dude, he’s Taghrooda’s brother. I like feeling that we have been a part of the process and it is not just because it’s a good horse.

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The opening day always majors on speed, quality, and drama from the get-go, with a double-barrelled Grade 1 two-mile novice volley to kick us off. Irish-trained runners have more than twice the strike rate of their counterparts trained in UK. Moreover, they’ve enjoyed a 55p in the £ difference in their returns, and a clear differential between the A/E indices.

True, since transferred to Closutton he’s won his maiden by a street, but again that form looks shallower than the toddlers’ end at your local baths. He’s pretty exposed is this chap and he’s shown very little. Of course, he can win, but there’s now’t in the book to say he should. Minella Indo won the Gold Cup in 2021 and was second a year later; pulled up in the Blue Riband twelve months ago, his sights have been lowered considerably and he had a reconnaissance visit in the December handicap over track and trip. There he conceded a stone and a half to Latenightpass but was beaten only five lengths or so. He’d started out this season winning a Grade 3 at Punchestown but was last of the four in the Grade 1 at Down Royal after which this new plan was hatched.

All of the last 16 winners had raced at least once since the start of Newbury’s Coral Cup Handicap Chase meeting the previous November. Among the British challengers, Teeshan from Paul Nicholls’ yard showed promise with a victory at Exeter last month, while Ben Pauling’s Sixmilebridge impressed on his stable debut at Sandown. Though primarily seen as a hurdling prospect for the future, Sixmilebridge shouldn’t be overlooked in this race. Willie Mullins fields the favourite, Jasmin De Vaux, who showcased promise with a victory at Naas on his stable debut in January.

So far he’s been beaten in two maidens before getting off the mark in a third such race, and that doesn’t fit with this race. To help you make your selection, you can access more information by clicking on the horse’s name on both today’s and tomorrow’s racecards. This will cause the horse’s information to slide out with all the key details. Jockey and trainer are obviously crucial, along with age and weight.

What is worth noting, however, is that 11 of the last 14 winners had raced fewer than ten times over fences and interestingly nine of the last 12 winners had worn some king of headgear (cheekpieces, hood or blinkers). Five of the last 13 winners had run in the Ultima Handicap the previous year. Willie Mullins naturally saddles a phalanx of blue bloods, and his first choice normally wins. Indeed, going back to Ebazayin, a 40/1 scorer for Mullins in 2007, that was his only – and therefore first choice – entry.

So you can know exactly what people are talking about, you should make sure to learn some of the following lingo. The Betway Handicap Chase tops the bill at Kempton, with four LIVE races at the Sunbury-On-Thames track, while the stayers are out again up at Newcastle for the gruelling Eider Chase that’s run over 4m1f. Then down at Lingfield the All Weather racing fans get their fix with a top-notch card that includes the Group 3 Winter Derby. We’ve another busy afternoon in store with seven LIVE ITV races spread across three tracks – Kempton, Lingfield and Newcastle. AU FLEURON holds an each-way squeak in what is a typically tough handicap hurdle to conclude the Cheltenham Festival.

She will also have to prove her stamina on this first attempt beyond two miles, her pedigree not guaranteeing she’ll stay. Queen’s Brook will be Gordon Elliott’s hope for the race, the mare having run third in the 2020 Champion Bumper behind Ferny Hollow before skipping last year’s Festival. Her recent form is consistent and ties in with the likes of Burning Victory but she’s won only once from five starts over hurdles since her maiden score.

I thought he was very impressive that day at Cork and with this race being in similar conditions I’m expecting a similar performance. It was disappointing to see him beaten at odds-on last time out at Clonmel but it looked a tactical small field race off a steady pace which wouldn’t have suited him, and I think he was done for a bit of toe up the straight. The Mare’s Chase is being billed as a match this year and while I do think both Allegoire De Vassy and Imprevious are brilliant mares, I think the market has overlooked MAGIC DAZE.

As a consequence, I went fishing for a wager in a different pond, the ‘without the favourite’ market. She’s now as big as 7/1 in that market, and in all honesty I’ve cooled on her prospects of running second to Honeysuckle (and therefore winning that bet) a little, though she still has grand claims of being in the first four. And Matt Tombs in his excellent matchbook content added that five of the 14 runners to start with a chase rating 7lb+ lower than their hurdle mark managed to win in the last 13 renewals.